Signs of Dwindling Interest in US Securities
Permalink Posted on 08-27-2006 at 10:58:49 pm by Aaron Email , 310 words, 658 views  

From the Aug. 19 "Inflation News Aids Bonds and the Fed" in Barrons, by Randall W. Forsyth, comes this set of revelations (emphasis mine):

Numbers for June, the most recent month for which data are available, show that overseas investors sharply increased their purchases of US Treasuries, to $27 billion, from $8.19 billion in May. But excluding Great Britain and Caribbean tax havens, overseas investors actually sold $1.3 billion in Treasuries. Moreover, foreign central banks dumped $18.1 billion worth of U.S. obligations. "This is a reflection of a growing trend toward diversification of foreign-exchange reserves, as the euro is becoming an increasingly attractive option for foreign official institutions," write PNC Bank economists.

Stepping into the breach, investors in the U.K., the Cayman Islands, and the like took $28.3 billion of Uncle Sam's paper, while the rest of the world was selling it. The buying may have come through the City of London and Grand Cayman, where many hedge funds are domiciled and where the numbers are compiled, but the money came from elsewhere.

Good thing that the hedge funds stepped forward to plug the gap by buying Treasuries. Foreign investors also continue to be consistent, active buyers of other U.S. securities, notably U.S. agency issues (think Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and, especially, corporate bonds.

Towards the end of the piece, Forsyth points out:

For a variety of reasons, U.S. investments have been sufficiently alluring to draw enough capital recently from around the globe to keep the dollar from crashing under the weight of America's massive deficit. The rest of the world uses dollars as the primary medium of exchange and store of wealth. America can print dollars at will. You can't beat that arrangement, at least from the U.S. standpoint. But investors abroad may get their fill of greenbacks.

Which, of course, may be what we're already observing here.

Comments, Pingbacks:

Comment from: Justin [Member]
What I am keeping my eye on is the CAD to USD relationship. I've got specific reasons for my interest in this ratio that I won't delve into here, but when the Bank of Canada paused earlier in the summer, that was when I started to be assured that the Fed would follow suit and not hike our rates an 18th time. Whether or not the BoC and the Fed are in cahoots, who knows? But I wouldn't be surprised.

That said, the CAD to USD ratio was strengthening big time earlier in the year and then the CAD weakened post-the BoC pause. Now it's swinging back again to a stronger CAD - and this is despite Natural Gas still being fairly inexpensive relative to this past winter. I think USD/CAD parity may not be too far off in the future ...
PermalinkPermalink 08-28-2006 @ 10:32
Comment from: Aaron [Member] Email
I am also keeping my eye on this.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some coordination here either. Britain has historically been in cahoots with the US central bank (indeed, some point out that the lineage of the Fed can be traced back to the island empire...), and some of this may explain the gap-plugging bond-buying discussed in the post. But I wouldn't be surprised if our other Anglican sister nation were involved.

Canada's finance minister has swore he'll try to keep the CAD from rising too much; but I'm not sure there are any legs to this promise. Parity has been reached before, in the 70s. This time, with the extensive petroleum production looming from up north, it seems the support will be quite long-lived.
PermalinkPermalink 08-28-2006 @ 10:41
Comment from: Steve Waldman [Visitor] Email · http://www.interfluidity.com/
Interesting. Vewwy, vewwy interesting.

I think it's worth pointing out, though, that it's unclear whether central banks are losing their appetite for Treasuries, or whether they are increasingly opting for privacy in how they manage their funds, purchasing via third party agents (in the UK and Caymans) to hide their tracks. If there were an increase in normal, profit-seeking interest by foreign US buyers, I would consider that a surprisingly good omen for the greenback. But I'm betting that a lot of this was central banks and oil funds selling their direct holdings, and buying dollars indirectly. (It's worth reading Brad Setser's weblog [ http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser ] for much discussion of this kind of thing.)
PermalinkPermalink 08-28-2006 @ 17:34

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