The Fed's Open Market Operations Do Nothing
Permalink Posted on 10-12-2006 at 02:44:11 pm by Aaron Email , 571 words, 793 views  

I just found this great Hussman article where he says essentially the same thing I said here (albeit five years earlier)--that the Fed has basically cut the true reins of control of the banking system (as of the early 90s) and now does little of anything (at least, in terms of restraint--it still seems to be able to make bubbles worse).

I recommend reading Hussman's article in full, but I just wanted to echo and underscore part of it here:

When the Fed "cuts interest rates", what it is really doing is replacing one government liability held by the public -- Treasury securities -- with another government liability: currency and bank reserves (monetary base). That's all the Fed does. It determines the mix -- but not the total amount -- of government liabilities held by the public.

It follows naturally that controlling only an infitesimal percentage of the currency base implies the Fed cannot do much about altering M1-level liquidity.

But what of liquidity at higher levels?

I would say that this has become a meaningless question, because our economy has become one in which all forms of debt are treated essentially the same -- as cash money. So it doesn't matter what particular form the debt-notes (money) the Fed has created (or allowed to be created) take. It's all a shell game.

One manifestation of this is consumer credit. This goes even to the extreme extent of being able to write onesself checks out of credit (which believe me, I've tested). In general, we know that consumers are now living directly off credit, as the negative savings rate implies.

But money "locked" into supposedly-illiquid classes of debt notes are like US Treasuries are really just as liquid as this, and therefore as liquid as cash. If you can use Treasury bills/bonds as collateral, for example, then they've become very liquid. This is how standard brokerage accounts work--including those for commodities and futures. Any securities you put in a standard brokerage account with margin, including T-bills, are essentially as good as cash collateral!

This means you can expand your positions based on them, or even in some cases extract cash.

Now, if this is the situation for standardized accounts, imagine what the situation is when you consider special-case financial leverage--anytime a major financial agent counts a large quantity of US Treasury securities as part of their "assets", and uses this as a justification for taking on more debt, they're using Treasury securities as de facto money!

So while you cannot typically run down to the corner store and buy milk with a Treasury bond, you can use them to increase your apparent net worth, which may give you access to cash and additional revolving credit (which is as good as cash). Thus, there is sure to be considerable "trickle-out" to M1 (which may explain much apparent M1 growth and measured real inflation in recent years).

But perhaps more significantly, one can see how this situation might engender "froth" and bubbles in the financial economy, as any debnature can be collateralized and leveraged against a larger quantity of debt in some other form. And early on, lots of people will end up with "real" M1 money, as they happily cash out of their bubble-inflated positions early. But most ultimately won't. That money isn't there; it isn't real, and the Fed can no longer stop its growth without radical banking system reform.

Comments, Pingbacks:

Comment from: Steve Waldman [Visitor] Email · http://www.interfluidity.com/
Nice exposition, Aaron. You might say, 'taint the money supply, it's the credit supply. Clearly the Fed don't control that. (They theoretically control M1-demand-deposit credit I s'pose, but as you've written they effectively gave up control of event that a while back. And my by-definition-not-M1 Eurodollars will by TMX Elmo on eBay just as good as your checking account.)

I wonder what constraints there are on credit growth. I s'pose we'll find out when we hit them, if they're out there. So far, smoothe sailing. But they said the same thing on the Titanic.
PermalinkPermalink 10-13-2006 @ 21:25
Comment from: Aaron [Member] Email
Yeah... I've been thinking a lot about debt, credit, and money, and have come to the surprising conclusion that they are all really the same thing. Also reading Soddy's book has tended to instigate this view.

Money is debt. Even cash is just a loan requiring no interest payment and having no term (though inflation effectively puts an interest burden on it). What we normally think of as "credit" is just revolving debnature, granted liberally.

In a sense it is great we're moving towards an economy where all of these "classes" of money and all their subforms are more fungible, but this all goes very very wrong when there are no limits on the creation of the stuff. Even if this multiplication of money were only restricted to one level or form, a bubble would inevitably form there, with all kinds of real effects and trickle-out effects to other money levels.

Eurodollars are another good example the arbitrariness of the M* hierarchy.

M2 versus M3 has just as arbitrary elements: CDs $100k and under are counted in M2, larger CDs go in M3.
PermalinkPermalink 10-14-2006 @ 08:37
Comment from: drhilarius [Visitor] Email
I am a huge Hussman fanboy but I am having trouble with the "Fed is irrelevant/just follows the market" thesis.

For example, was the Fed really just following the market when it hammered the funds rate down to 1%?

And don't you think that the prolonged period of sub-inflation funds rates was relevant in its effect on the housing bubble?

I guess a way to ask in Hussman's terms would be: ok, the Fed can only determine the mix, and not the total amt, of debt held by the public. But does changing that mix really not make a difference?

thanks for the great commentary...
PermalinkPermalink 10-18-2006 @ 15:35
Comment from: Aaron [Member] Email
drhilarious:

I basically agree with you. I think the key insight of Hussman (and that which I tried to underscore) is that the Fed's core policy tool actually does little if anything. When you look at the data, it's almost laughably naive to suggest otherwise, and it becomes clear the whole thing is a massive shell game.

However, I think the Fed has plenty of ability to influence the market, but mostly in a bad way. In specific, the Fed seems to have little remaining ability or inclination to exercise any form of economic restraint or austerity, having become almost purely a stimulus machine.

Well, that takes care of half of the potential monetary problems -- what about the other half? Apparently no one asks questions as long as liquidity keeps pumping, bubbles, inflation, and recessions and wealth condensation be damned.

Some articles in which I discuss little-known ways in which the Fed actually exercises considerable influence in this manner are linked to this one above. I've also set up a general page on exposing this and other unsettling aspects of the Fed system here:

http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/fed_shame.html

We'll probably turn this into a permanent feature of this site in the near future. Check back frequently for updates!
PermalinkPermalink 10-18-2006 @ 20:13
Comment from: drhilarius [Visitor] Email
Thanks for the reply... I will look forward to checking out your Gallery of Shame to try to get more insight on this topic.
PermalinkPermalink 10-19-2006 @ 02:40

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